Incidence and predictors of metabolic syndrome in an urban, adult Sri Lankan population – a community cohort follow-up study

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: There is limited data on the incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) from the South Asian region. In 2007, we reported a 38.9% prevalence of MetS in an urban, adult Sri Lankan population. OBJECTIVES: This study investigated incidence and risk factors for MetS in this population cohort after seven years’ follow-up. METHOD: The study population (42-71-year-olds, selected by age-stratified random sampling from the Ragama MOH area) was screened initially in 2007 and invited for re-evaluation in 2014. On both occasions they were assessed by structured interview, anthropometric measurements, liver ultrasound, and biochemical and serological tests. MetS was diagnosed on established International Diabetes Federation (IDF 2006) criteria. RESULTS: 2155/2985 (72.2%) of the original cohort attended follow-up [1244 women, 911 men; mean-age 59.2 (SD 7.7) years]. 1227 fulfilled IDF criteria for MetS (prevalence 59.3%). Out of 1246 individuals who initially did not have MetS in 2007, 318 [225 women; mean age 57.5 (SD 7.7) years] had developed MetS after 7 years (annual incidence 3.65%). On logistical regression, female sex (OR 3.41; p<0.001), central obesity (OR=1.50, p=0.022), BMI >=23 (OR=3.82, p<0.001) and presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (OR=1.83, p=0.001) in 2007 were independently predictive of incident MetS. CONCLUSIONS: In this community cohort follow-up study, the annual incidence of MetS was 3.65%. Female gender, presence of NAFLD, central obesity and increased BMI predicted the development of future MetS.