Unconditional probability of dying due to Non-Communicable Diseases on rise: cause of death analysis from 2002 to 2010

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, World Health Assembly set a target to reduce premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality by 25% from 2010 to 2025. Unconditional probability of dying (UPoD) is used to monitor the changes in mortality over a time period. UPoD excludes confounding across countries or over time due to changes in mortality rates for other competing causes and it controls for differences in population age structure. OBJECTIVES: To study unconditional probability of dying (UPoD) due to non-communicable diseases in Sri Lanka. METHOD: Mortality data were obtained from Registrar General Department of Sri Lanka. Deaths due to cardiovascular diseases (ICD 00 – 99), diabetes (E10 – E14), cancer (ICD C00 – C99) and chronic respiratory diseases (J30 – J98) for 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2010 were considered and UPoD between 30 to 70 age group from four NCDs (cardiovascular diseases (CVD), cancer (CA), diabetes (DM) and chronic respiratory diseases (COPD)) was calculated. Explain how UPoD was calculated. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2010; overall UPoD increased from 15.3 to 19.1, where males showed higher UPoD compared to females throughout the period. During this period, UPoD due to CVD increased from 9.3 to 10.1, UPoD from DM increased from 1.0 to 3.1, UPoD from CA increased from 3.5 to 5.0 and UPoD from COPD remained around 2.3. CONCLUSIONS: UPoD due to CVD, DM and CA have shown an increasing trend from 2002 to 2010 and we would expect more premature deaths in the age group 30 to 70 if the same trend continues over the next decade. Therefore achieving 25% reduction in mortality in 2025 could be challenging for Sri Lanka.