Patterns of alcohol use and occurrence of alcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective, community cohort, 7-year follow-up study

Abstract

INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVES: Data is limited on alcoholic fatty liver disease (AFLD). We investigated patterns of alcohol use and AFLD, among urban, adult, Sri Lankans. METHODS: Study population (selected by age-stratified random sampling from Ragama MOH-area) was screened initially in 2007 (35-64 years) and re-evaluated in 2014. On both occasions they were assessed by structured-interview, anthropometric measurements, liver ultrasound, biochemical and serological tests. AFLD was diagnosed on ultrasound criteria, unsafe alcohol consumption (Asian standards: males>14units, females>7units per week) and absence of hepatitis B/C markers. Controls were individuals with unsafe alcohol consumption, but had no ultrasound criteria of AFLD. Case-control genetic-association for PNPLA3 (rs738409) polymorphism for AFLD was performed. RESULTS: A total of 2983/3012 (99%) had complete data. 272/2983(9.1%) were unsafe-drinkers [males- 70; mean-age 51.9 (SD-8.0) years]. 86/2983 (2.9%) of the cohort and 86/272 (31.6%) of unsafe-drinkers had AFLD [males-85; mean-age 50.2 (SD-8.6) years]. Males [p<0.001], increased waist circumference (WC) [p=0.001], BMI>23kg/m2 [p<0.001], raised triglycerides (TG) [p<0.001], low education level (LEL-not completed secondary-education) [p<0.01] and low monthly household-income (<median-Rs.20,000) [p<0.001] were associated with AFLD. 2155/2985 (72.2%) [males-911; mean-age 59.2 (SD-7.7) years] attended follow-up in 2014. 118/186 who initially did not have AFLD, but consumed unsafe amounts of alcohol and presented for follow up, 47/118 (39.8%) [males-47, mean-age 57.9 (SD-7.9) years] had developed AFLD after 7 years (annual incidence-5.7%). Males [p<0.001], increased WC [p<0.001], BMI>23kg/m2 [p<0.001], raised TG [p<0.001] and LEL [p<0.05] independently predicted incident-AFLD. The genetic association study [133-cases (combined 2007-2014), 97-controls] showed no association with AFLD at PNPLA3 (rs738409). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of AFLD was 2.9% in 2007 and annual incidence among heavy drinkers, after 7-year follow-up was 5.7%. Incident-AFLD was associated with males, obesity, raised TG and LEL.