Abstract:
Geological uncertainty refers to the changeability of a geomaterial category embedded in another. It arises from predicting a geomaterial category at unobserved locations using categorical data from a site investigation (SI). In the design of bridge foundations, geological uncertainty is often not considered because of the difficulties of assessing it using sparse borehole data, validating the quality of predictions, and incorporating such uncertainties into pile foundation design. To overcome these problems, this study utilizes sparse borehole data and proposes a hybrid approach of various spatial Markov Chain (spMC) models and Monte Carlo simulation to predict three-dimensional (3D) geomaterial categories and assess geological uncertainties. The 3D analysis gives realistic and comprehensive information about the site. Characteristics of the proposed hybrid approach include the estimation of transition rates, prediction of 3D geomaterial categories, and simulation of multiple realizations to propagate the uncertainties quantified by information entropy. This proposed hybrid approach leads to specific novelties that include the development of optimal SI plans to reduce geological uncertainty and the determination of geomaterial layer boundaries according to the quantified geological uncertainty. Reducing the geological uncertainties and accurately determining spatial geomaterial boundaries will improve the design reliability and safety of bridge foundations. The hybrid approach is applied to the Lodgepole Creek Bridge project site in Wyoming to demonstrate the application of the hybrid approach and the associated novelties. Outcomes are cross-validated to evaluate the geomaterial prediction accuracy of the hybrid approach.
