Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka

Aberathna, Wasana; Alles, Lakshman; Wickremasinghe, W. N.; Hewapathirana, Isuru

dc.contributor.author	Aberathna, Wasana
dc.contributor.author	Alles, Lakshman
dc.contributor.author	Wickremasinghe, W. N.
dc.contributor.author	Hewapathirana, Isuru
dc.date.accessioned	2024-10-24T07:01:08Z
dc.date.available	2024-10-24T07:01:08Z
dc.date.issued	2014
dc.identifier.citation	Aberathna, W., Alles, L., Wickremasinghe, W. N., & Hewapathirana, I.U. (2014, December 15). Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics, 15(3), 141. https://doi.org/10.4038/sljastats.v15i3.7794	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://repository.kln.ac.lk/handle/123456789/28582
dc.description.abstract	The purpose of this study is to develop sex-specific mortality estimation models using historical mortality data for Sri Lanka, based on the statistical time series techniques attributed to Lee and Carter (1992). Historical mortality data was analyzed in the light of significant historical episodes. Several alternative univariate time series models were examined for modeling males and females, as well as a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR model when fitted to the first differenced series performed better than the univariate models and hence used for forecasting purposes. From the estimated VAR model, mortality forecasts were generated for the period up to 2030 and life tables were generated for the selected periods of 2006-2008.	en_US
dc.subject	Ageing, Mortality forecasting, life tables, Sri Lanka	en_US
dc.title	Modeling and Forecasting Mortality in Sri Lanka	en_US